UK and France End Contested 'One In, One Out' Migrant Return Pilot

The British government has confirmed that its experimental "one in, one out" migration arrangement with France has been discontinued, bringing an end to a pilot that had been closely watched as a possible model for managing small boat crossings in the English Channel.

The programme, launched just over a year ago, was designed to create a two-way exchange: the UK could send back some people who had arrived by small boat, while simultaneously accepting an equivalent number of individuals from France who were assessed as having a legitimate claim to enter Britain. The intent was to deter irregular crossings by signalling that arrival by boat would not automatically lead to settlement, while still offering a legal pathway for a matching number of people.

According to the government, the scheme ultimately failed to operate at the scale originally envisioned. Only around 1,500 people were returned to France during the pilot's lifetime, a figure that officials privately acknowledge fell short of expectations. The BBC understands that ministers would have preferred the arrangement to continue, but concluded that it was not delivering the volume of returns needed to justify its continuation.

A Home Office spokesperson confirmed the shift in policy, stating that the pilot is no longer processing new cases. However, the spokesperson emphasised that removal flights will proceed in the coming weeks to deport small boat migrants who have no right to remain in the UK. "Lessons learned" from the pilot will be used to "accelerate efforts" to return individuals with no legal basis to stay, the spokesperson added.

The government also stressed that it remains committed to cooperating with France on tackling small boat crossings more broadly. According to the Home Office, "real progress" has been made, pointing to numbers that are "significantly down on last year." The French Interior Ministry confirmed that discussions are ongoing with British counterparts regarding the terms of the agreement's termination, indicating that the exit is being managed through diplomatic channels rather than ending abruptly.

The pilot had been closely associated with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who earlier this month acknowledged before MPs that the scheme had "not been without its challenges." She noted that the numbers involved remained "relatively small" and that scaling up weekly removals into the French system had proven "more operationally difficult" than anticipated. At the same time, Mahmood suggested the programme may have had a deterrent effect, citing reports from the United Nations and other agencies that some migrants were avoiding small boats because they believed they might be accepted under the "one in, one out" framework.

The financial cost of the scheme also drew scrutiny. According to earlier statements by the home secretary, each person returned to France under the pilot cost approximately £56,000, a figure that critics argued was difficult to justify given the limited number of returns achieved. The combination of high per-person costs and low overall volumes appears to have contributed to the decision to wind the programme down.

The discontinuation comes amid a broader decline in small boat arrivals this year. Between 1 January and 27 September 2026, a total of 19,135 people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France. That represents a 42% decrease compared with the same period in 2025, when 32,188 people made the crossing. Since 2020, small boat arrivals have become the most common method by which people are detected entering the UK illegally, making the route a central focus of government migration policy.

Nearly all individuals who arrive by small boat claim asylum, which under international law allows them to remain in the country while their applications are considered. Between July 2025 and June 2026, small boat arrivals accounted for 40% of all asylum applications. The boats themselves have grown more crowded: vessels arriving between 28 September 2025 and 27 September 2026 carried an average of 67 people, more than double the average recorded in 2021. Experts warn that such overcrowding makes crossings significantly riskier, and the United Nations has documented at least 84 deaths during Channel crossing attempts in 2024 alone.

The demographics of those arriving have also remained consistent. Eritreans made up 18% of all small boat arrivals between July 2025 and June 2026, followed by people from Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Iran. In the latest figures covering January to December 2025, at least 2,335 people who arrived by small boat were identified as potential victims of human trafficking or other forms of modern slavery, according to Home Office data.

Beyond small boats, another 4,712 people were detected entering the UK without permission through other methods between July 2025 and June 2026, including hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries, or passing through airports. That figure was down 17% on the previous year. The total number of people living in the UK illegally after arriving legally—for example, by overstaying a work or study visa—remains unknown.

The government has pledged to "smash the gangs" responsible for organising crossings, arguing that dismantling criminal networks is the most effective long-term solution. Whether the end of the "one in, one out" pilot will strengthen or weaken that effort remains an open question. Supporters of the scheme argued it provided a legal alternative that could undercut smuggling operations, while critics contended it was too small and too costly to serve as a meaningful deterrent.

For now, the focus shifts to the promised acceleration of removal flights and continued bilateral cooperation with France. The coming weeks will reveal whether the lessons drawn from the pilot translate into a more effective strategy—or whether the abandonment of the scheme leaves a gap in the UK's broader approach to irregular migration across the Channel.